CHICAGO, 17 October 2013 - Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development center of excellence at Aon Benfield, has developed a scenario model to quantify the losses from a flood in Colorado following record rainfall in the U.S. state. Aon Benfield is the global reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor of Aon plc (NYSE:AON). 

A stretch of prolonged heavy rainfall in September 2013 spawned major flash flooding across northeastern sections of the state that caused nine deaths and damaged or destroyed a minimum of 17,983 homes and 968 commercial properties, according to the Colorado Office of Emergency Management.

In response, Impact Forecasting is helping the insurance industry to better understand the risk from flood going forward with a new scenario model. Based on a USGS (United States Geological Survey) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the model analyzes insurance portfolios either:

across the state of Colorado at a 100-meter resolution; or

by focusing on the five cities that experienced most damage – Boulder, Longmont, Fort Collins, Greeley and Colorado Springs – at a more detailed 30-meter resolution.

The record levels of rainfall were a key input into the model, which was developed by Impact Forecasting’s Research and Development team in Chicago. This was recorded by USGS’s network of stream gauges located along many rivers throughout Colorado’s Front Range, specifically the South Platte and Upper Arkansas watersheds. The model uses a two-dimensional finite volume-based numerical model to simulate flood inundation depth.

Siamak Daneshvaran, Head of Research and Development at Impact Forecasting, commented: “The scope of damage and the overall scale of impacts make this the costliest flood in Colorado’s history, and the first such event to cause more than USD1.0 billion dollars in uninflated economic damages in the state. The new scenario model is part of Impact Forecasting’s U.S. river flood probabilistic model and will help insurers gauge the financial impact and probability of this event’s potential recurrence.” 

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About Impact Forecasting® LLC

Impact Forecasting is a catastrophe modeling center of excellence whose seismologists, meteorologists, engineers, mathematicians, finance risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world.  Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers.  To find out more about Impact Forecasting® LLC, visit www.impactforecasting.com.

About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc, is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver a local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is the leading global provider of risk management, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human resources solutions and outsourcing services. Through its more than 65,000 colleagues worldwide, Aon unites to empower results for clients in over 120 countries via innovative and effective risk and people solutions and through industry-leading global resources and technical expertise. Aon has been named repeatedly as the world’s best broker, best insurance intermediary, reinsurance intermediary, captives manager and best employee benefits consulting firm by multiple industry sources. Visit www.aon.com for more information on Aon and www.aon.com/manchesterunited to learn about Aon’s global partnership and shirt sponsorship with Manchester United.