LONDON, 31 October 2013 – Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development center of excellence at Aon Benfield, has launched its first tool to understand the financial impact of riots by developing an analysis of the threat within Indonesia. Aon Benfield is the global reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor of Aon plc (NYSE:AON).

The need to fully understand the political dynamics of Indonesia has become significantly more important in recent years as Indonesia continues to develop into one of the world’s leading economic powers. With the fourth largest population in the world and a rapidly expanding insurance market it is vital for insurers and reinsurers to fully comprehend the threat that can stem from rioting in Indonesia to avoid unforeseen losses.

A key benefit of the catastrophe model for insurers and reinsurers is the improved understanding of the key risks in Indonesia. Impact Forecasting uses data from the United Nations and the World Bank that covers over 86% of all riots in Indonesia and documents the location, severity and catalyst for each event across the country.

The model includes:

• 600 unique events including the anti-Soeharto rioting in 1998, ethnic rioting in Kalimantan and sectarian violence between Christians and Muslims in Maluku
• Location of central hotspots and the catalyst for each riot
• Motives around elections, governance, popular justice, land, separatism and identity.

Malcolm Steingold, CEO of Aon Benfield for Asia-Pacific said: “The threat of rioting in Indonesia following the fall of the Suharto regime has had a significant impact on the property and life insurance markets in the country. Indeed, in the last 20 years rioting in Indonesia has led to over 6,900 fatalities and damage to over 40,000 properties highlighting the destructive properties of riotous behaviour. By understanding this risk, it will help insurers to grow their business in Indonesia while being fully aware of the risks and hotspots for violence.”

Mark Lynch, terrorism, riot and political risk catastrophe model developer at Impact Forecasting, added: “Riot modelling provides important information for insurers seeking to develop their capacity in emerging markets but are unsure of the stability of the country and, as a result, their insured assets. We have developed a map for each riot in Indonesia detailing the severity of potential property, life, and accident and health losses for each event. Modellers then overlay insurers’ exposures over each map to calculate the losses.”

PICTURE: Map of riots in Indonesia over 20 years

http://img.en25.com/Web/AonBenfield/Riots_Locations_in_Indonesia.jpg

About Impact Forecasting® LLC

Impact Forecasting is a catastrophe modeling center of excellence whose seismologists, meteorologists, engineers, mathematicians, finance risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world.  Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers.  To find out more about Impact Forecasting® LLC, visit www.impactforecasting.com.

About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc, is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver a local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is the leading global provider of risk management, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human resources solutions and outsourcing services. Through its more than 65,000 colleagues worldwide, Aon unites to empower results for clients in over 120 countries via innovative and effective risk and people solutions and through industry-leading global resources and technical expertise. Aon has been named repeatedly as the world’s best broker, best insurance intermediary, reinsurance intermediary, captives manager and best employee benefits consulting firm by multiple industry sources. Visit www.aon.com for more information on Aon and www.aon.com/manchesterunited to learn about Aon’s global partnership and shirt sponsorship with Manchester United.