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Businesses Should Beware the Unpredictable Political Risks of Investing in Emerging Economies, Warns 2005 Political and Economic Risk Map

 

London – 3 February 2005 – Businesses continue to be attracted to emerging markets in search of lucrative investment opportunities, international contracts or cost effective outsourcing opportunities.  However, commercial decisions to enter these markets should not be solely driven by economics; unpredictable political risks* continue to shape the investment climate, as evidenced by the 2005 Political and Economic Risk map published today by Aon, the leading insurance broker, risk management and human capital consulting firm

Positive political developments take time to influence the risk perceptions held by the political risk insurance underwriting community.  Despite the recent election of pro-Western candidate Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukraine's high risk rating remains unchanged this year.  Similarly Libya's rating remains medium high despite closer co-operation with the West.  UK Government support in Africa has not yet impacted the perception of high risk inherent to the region.

Business continues to focus on China as the world’s largest growth economy, with many companies looking to invest, trade or outsource their activities to the region.  However, this level of interest has done little to mitigate the significant political risks endemic to the region.

As expected, ongoing unrest and terrorist activity in the Middle East continue to pose high risk to foreign investors.  Saudi Arabia's risk rating is higher this year, reflecting flagging confidence following an upsurge in terrorist attacks against foreigners.  Middle Eastern states continue to cause concern, particularly in Iraq where the outlook is increasingly pessimistic.

The risk outlook is not entirely negative.  Argentina has become more politically stable following restructuring of the country’s sovereign debt.  Central and Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania have also been upgraded in anticipation of their 2007 accession to the European Union. 

Equally, despite the devastating physical effects of the Asian tsunami, South East Asia's political risk profile is not perceived to have changed for the worse as a result.

Charles Keville, a director in Aon’s crisis management team, commented, “Slow to improve but quick to worsen, the risks facing investors are significantly more complex than they were 25 years ago.

“Political risk is unpredictable by its very nature: it is not always a clear case of cause and effect.  A political or economic positive does not automatically equate to an immediate reduction of risk, as the insurance market is conservative and countries must establish an improving track record before ratings can be upgraded. 

“Businesses should therefore avoid making assumptions based on superficial market readings and constantly monitor the markets in which they choose to invest so as to properly protect themselves.  Forewarned is forearmed.”

A new feature of Aon’s Political and Economic Risk Map 2005 is the Supply Chain Vulnerability Index which assesses the exposure to delays and/or disruptions faced by supply chains arising from political and economic instability.  To obtain a copy of Aon’s Political and Economic Risk Map 2005, visit: www.aon.com/politicalrisk.

Notes to editors

*Political risk can be defined as any action taken by either host or home governments or people or groups in host countries that can have an effect on the outcome of an international investment, contract or outsourcing activity.

About Aon

Aon Corporation (www.aon.com) is a leading provider of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance underwriting. The company employs approximately 51,000 professionals in its 600 offices in more than 120 countries.  Backed by broad resources, industry knowledge and technical expertise, Aon professionals help a wide range of clients develop effective risk management and workforce productivity solutions.

This press release contains certain statements relating to future results, which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from either historical or anticipated results, depending on a variety of factors.  Potential factors that could impact results include the general economic conditions in different countries around the world, fluctuations in global equity and fixed income markets, exchange rates, rating agency actions, resolution of pending regulatory investigations and related issues, including those related to compensation arrangements with underwriters, pension funding, ultimate paid claims may be different from actuarial estimates and actuarial estimates may change over time, changes in commercial property and casualty markets and commercial premium rates, the competitive environment, the actual costs of resolution of contingent liabilities and other loss contingencies, and the heightened level of potential errors and omissions liability arising from placements of complex policies and sophisticated reinsurance arrangements in an insurance market in which insurer reserves are under pressure.  Further information, concerning the Company and its business, including factors that potentially could materially affect the Company’s financial results, is contained in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

Aon Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in respect of insurance mediation activities only.

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