Model transparency and customization help to shape better decisions around hurricane risk for clients

LONDON, Aug. 14, 2024 - Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, today announced the launch of its U.S. Hurricane v3.0 catastrophe model to estimate insured losses from Atlantic basin hurricanes for 31 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

U.S. hurricanes have caused $1.1 trillion in economic damage and nearly $520 billion in insured losses in the 21^st century, remaining one of the world’s peak perils. Plus, there is heightened activity forecast for this season for which insurers need to prepare by leveraging analytics to unlock capital.

Developed by Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, the latest model features an all-new event set, enhanced hazard and vulnerability components, and a significant expansion of occupancy classes and primary and secondary modifiers to define exposure. It can be licensed by any organizations that are seeking to assess and transfer catastrophic risk, including corporations, insurers, reinsurers, intermediaries and the public sector.

The model comprises two views of risk:

• Impact Forecasting’s ‘historical reference’ view features 200,000 simulated years of hurricane activity, and is calibrated with historical data and client claims experience for increased accuracy. This view includes 218 historical events spanning 120 years, including storms from the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season, such as Hurricane Eta, which exhibited unprecedented frequency and late-season formation.
• Impact Forecasting’s ‘adjusted-rate’ view, which incorporates the latest scientific research drawn from Columbia University and reflects shifts in the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin that may result from climate change between the model baseline (historical reference view) and the 2030-2050 timeframe. Aon’s collaboration with Columbia represents just one of 14 global academic partnerships for the firm, whose research output is used to inform Aon’s modelling solutions.

The U.S. hurricane model is integrated with the Automated Event Response platform, which provides insurers with real-time loss forecasts for North Atlantic storms, and can be operated in Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS proprietary loss calculation software. Further model benefits include:

• Methodologies that are consistent with those used by Aon’s Atlantic Tropical Cyclone—Wind (FCHLPM) v2.0 model, which is approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology for use in residential rate filings with the Office of Insurance Regulation.
• The ability to conduct experimental event sets, such as variations of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 or deterministic what-if scenarios across the coast.
• Customization to align with a client’s own view of risk by incorporating adjustments into the model workflow.

Adam Podlaha, global head of Impact Forecasting at Aon, said: “Hurricanes are among the world’s most frequently occurring natural disasters, making it a critical peril for the re/insurance industry – particularly in developed areas of the U.S. where there are high asset values at risk. To help insurers navigate this peril, our new hurricane model continues to draw on the latest data and information available, both proprietary and open-source.”

Radovan Drinka, Impact Forecasting analytics director, added: “The new hurricane model is informed by engineering principles and historical claims data, important components that help to create an even more robust loss calculation platform for clients, helping them to build resilience and shape better business decisions.”

The U.S. Hurricane model is part of Aon Actionable Analytics, which brings together the firm’s proprietary and third-party data, tools, and analytics professionals to make better decisions.

Discover more on Aon’s Impact Forecasting models: https://www.aon.com/en/capabilities/reinsurance/catastrophe-model-insight

For more information about Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions, please visit: https://www.aon.com/home/solutions/reinsurance.html

About Aon
Aon plc (NYSE: AON) exists to shape decisions for the better — to protect and enrich the lives of people around the world. Through actionable analytic insight, globally integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise, and locally relevant solutions, our colleagues in over 120 countries provide our clients with the clarity and confidence to make better risk and people decisions that protect and grow their businesses.

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Media Contact
Emily DeLarm
+18474420189
emily.delarm@aon.com