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Aon launches real-time loss forecasting for US hurricane and European windstorm

MONTE CARLO (9 September 2019) – Aon plc (NYSE:AON), a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions, has launched its Automated Event Response (AER) to enable insurers to view real-time portfolio risks from two of the costliest perils: U.S. hurricane and European windstorm.

Since 2016 alone, insured losses have reached more than USD83 billion following hurricane landfalls from such storms as Harvey, Irma, Michael, Florence and Matthew. In Europe, seasonal windstorms have resulted in nearly USD9 billion in claims payouts, including billion-dollar industry events like Friederike and Eberhard.

During a catastrophe, insurers aim to deliver the best service and indemnify customers as soon as possible. This means they need to understand which areas have been impacted in a timely manner to prioritise claims response, and obtain quick loss estimates to inform their stakeholders.

To help achieve this, Aon’s Impact Forecasting team has developed real time loss modelling by combining weather forecasts from from different meteorological institutions, including the National Hurricane Center in the US, with an insurer’s portfolio data.

The modelling process is fully automated with email alerts – forecasting losses and claims count for the next five days – sent to insurers every six hours when the losses go above a pre-agreed threshold. Insurers will be able to use this information to prioritize their claims adjustment activities, such as when, where, and how many adjustors are needed.

Adam Podlaha, Head of Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, commented: “As insurers embrace technology to obtain quicker, more accurate insights and react more efficiently, the automated event response service allows clients to receive regular and timely email updates in the hours leading up to an event’s arrival. This enables insurers to begin to prepare ahead of time to ensure proper planning for their own customers’ needs.”

The service is based on Impact Forecasting’s US hurricane and European windstorm models which have been calibrated using extensive detailed loss data from historical events that created significant economic impacts.


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