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Aon Launches Certified Florida Hurricane Model to Offer Insurers Alternative View of Risk

CHICAGO, June 16, 2021 – Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions, today announced the release of its new Impact Forecasting Florida hurricane model, which incorporates the latest research and technology to provide insurers with an additional view of risk when submitting Florida rate filings. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has certified the model for ratemaking in the state.

The model incorporates a range of wind mitigation options and secondary building characteristics which insurers can use to develop refined views of risk, reflecting portfolio-specific risk appetites and underwriting approaches. Model results incorporate regional variations in building code requirements and construction practices which have been extensively validated using claims data contributed by Aon’s clients. The model also features an event set that calculates wind hazard during the entire lifecycle of each simulated hurricane, allowing for variations in hurricane intensity that are associated with varying ocean temperatures.

In addition, insurers can also use the new model to develop a bespoke view of risk to shape underwriting, portfolio management and reinsurance purchase decisions.  In developing the new Florida hurricane model, Aon has furthered its commitment and investment in enabling insurers to gain access to alternative views on their risks – without being restricted to just one catastrophe model.

Adam Podlaha, Head of Impact Forecasting at Aon, said: “The state of Florida is no stranger to tropical cyclone risk – from 2016 to 2020 alone, the state recorded eight named storm landfalls, including three striking at hurricane intensity. These landfalls, plus impacts from non-landfalling storms, have resulted in public and private insured losses in Florida of nearly $40 billion during this period.”

George deMenocal, CEO of U.S. Reinsurance Solutions, added: “Aon actively engages with re/insurers that write Florida business to evaluate alternative views, identify and quantify uncertainty, and customize their view of risk. Our new Florida hurricane model will be instrumental in this process and demonstrates our continuing commitment to enhancing the understanding of this peril and helping clients navigate new forms of volatility.”

The new model will assist insurers in areas including:

  • The identification of risk drivers at the location level to support underwriting and portfolio management strategies and fulfil rate filing requirements for personal and commercial residential risks;
  • Calculating portfolio loss metrics to support capital adequacy studies and rating agency reporting;
  • Accessing alternative perspectives to measure catastrophe risk and integrate a bespoke view of risk;
  • Understanding the impact of climate change – Aon’s collaboration with Columbia University is creating a climate change solution for its global tropical cyclone catastrophe model suite using Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects CMIP 6 climate data. Insurers can evaluate a probabilistic view of both the potential insured losses that could arise from hurricanes impacting Florida and the variability in those losses due to future climate scenarios; and
  • Early insight into loss projections for upcoming hurricanes, enabling insurers to better mitigate potential losses and plan event response. Aon’s Automated Event Response now includes 10 forecasting models in addition to the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast.



Notes to Editors:

  • To develop residential property insurance rates that are “neither excessive nor inadequate,” the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) was formed in 1995 to review hurricane loss models. Insurers can only use certified models for ratemaking.

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE: AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.

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Andrew Wragg

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Registered office: The Aon Centre, The Leadenhall Building, 122 Leadenhall Street, London EC3V 4AN. Aon UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FP #13011-AD

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