LONDON, 7 March, 2022 - Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, today announced the updated functionality of its Impact Forecasting Europe windstorm catastrophe model following insights gained from outbreaks of severe weather in recent years as well as user feedback.

Since 1980, windstorms in Europe have caused $123 billion USD of insured losses and annual average losses of $3.0 billion USD (Aon Catastrophe Insight, 2021). For the first time, high resolution storm surge modelling for the United Kingdom has been included in the model, as a result of the team’s collaboration with global flood risk expert, JBA Risk Management.

Adam Podlaha, Aon’s head of Impact Forecasting, said: “By drawing on client feedback and client needs, lessons learned from historical events, and the collaboration between our wind experts and flood science specialists, JBA Risk Management, this model update delivers a complete view of risk that enables users to make more informed and better decisions to manage the windstorm peril across Europe, including the UK. We are also seeing more and more insurers benefit from customised models for this peril, a trend which we expect to continue.”

This update to the model, the largest since its release in 2015, presents a broad range of new features – a comprehensive revision of the vulnerability component for all countries including modelling for detailed residential portfolio classes as well as motor portfolios, expansion to Central and Eastern Europe, and additional historical events from recent years including storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin.

Re/insurers utilizing the model benefit from peer-reviewed climate research from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, which has been incorporated into the model to address seasonal storm clustering and its impact on losses. These enhanced insights can in turn help re/insurers better quantify exposures and navigate volatility across their businesses.

The updated European model continues to run in ELEMENTS – Impact Forecasting’s proprietary catastrophe modelling platform – and in Oasis-based platforms, and can be customised for specific lines of business, or with claims information to better quantify a re/insurer’s catastrophe view of risk.

JBA UK Managing Director, Jane Toothill added, “The recent storms across Europe have once again highlighted the urgent need for more complete and timely insights to help re/insurers manage flood and wind risk. Pooling the expertise of JBA and Aon brings new, powerful insights across both UK hazards, enabling insurers to gain a greater understanding of the potential impacts on their portfolios from windstorm and surge.”

In addition to the updated model, Impact Forecasting’s European windstorm loss forecasting service - The Automated Event Response calculates losses both pre-event (up to 72 hours before storm landfall) as well as post-event (released within 48 hours following an event) and helps re/insurers and corporations to quantify potential losses and prioritise claims teams to more quickly and efficiently help those in need.

For more information about Impact Forecasting, please click here

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Andrew Wragg

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andrew.wragg@aon.com