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Aon Delivers New Earthquake Model for Canada Through Collaboration With GEM

LONDON, 21 February 2023 - Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, today announced the launch of a new probabilistic catastrophe model to quantify loss potential for earthquake risk in Canada.

Developed by Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, the model represents the outcome of a collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, of which Aon recently became a governor sponsor. The model is based on the latest scientific research from Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), which published a sixth-generation Seismic Hazard Model for Canada’s 2020 National Building Code.

Impact Forecasting data show that global cumulative earthquake damage since 2000 had exceeded $1 trillion by the end of 2022. While earthquake damage in Canada has been relatively low, the peril remains a significant concern for the country.

Adam Podlaha, global head of Impact Forecasting, said: “We are excited to continue our work with GEM in developing new Impact Forecasting earthquake models, as well as enabling clients to access GEM-developed models within Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS platform. Our recently released Canada Earthquake model shows the collaborative power of our community to help navigate this form of volatility.”

Sonia Talwar, director, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), public representative to GEM Governing Board for Canada and GEM Governing Board vice-chair, added: “The GEM-Impact Forecasting Canada earthquake risk model demonstrates how we can further the understanding of earthquake risk in Canada with open source information available and accessible in Canada. We are pleased to see our foundational earthquake hazard and risk work extended and applied for risk reduction.”

The new earthquake model combines the latest seismic hazard model for Canada, implemented by Natural Resources Canada natively in GEM’s OpenQuake platform, with Impact Forecasting’s enhancements for secondary perils – including liquefaction, landslides, tsunami and fire following earthquake.

The model is available for loss modelling in Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS platform, as well as Oasis-based platforms such as Nasdaq Risk Modelling for Catastrophes. It provides a range of outputs, including annual aggregates and probable maximum loss estimates for single risks and a portfolio of properties. Clients can also leverage the high-resolution hazard and risk maps for detailed underwriting and risk assessment.

In 2023, the Impact Forecasting team - in collaboration with GEM - will take part in several re/insurance market events and presentations to introduce the model in detail and explore how it can help clients better quantify loss potential through enhanced data and insights to help make better business decisions.

Podlaha added: “We have chosen to work with GEM because of its global reputation for open and high-quality science and engineering-based risk modelling, combined with its close collaboration with Natural Resources Canada. In addition, we are excited to bring enhanced understanding of the earthquake risk to the insurance industry, with a goal of ultimately increasing resilience across Canada.”

For more information about Aon’s Impact Forecasting capabilities, visit

To learn more about GEM, follow:


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