CHICAGO, Nov. 14, 2024 - Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, today announced its new Florida Flood v3.0 model received certification from the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM). The new model assesses flood exposures in the state to inform re/insurers’ rate filings.
Developed by Impact Forecasting – Aon’s catastrophe model center of excellence – in collaboration with global flood and climate risk modelling firm, Fathom, the Florida Flood v3.0 model allows clients to leverage the latest data, analytics and research to quantify flood risk from tropical and non-tropical weather systems across all three flood sub-perils – specifically, riverine (fluvial) and surface (pluvial) flooding, as well as tropical cyclone storm surge.
With Florida’s extensive coastline and frequent storms, the state is threatened by floods throughout the year. According to data from Aon’s Catastrophe Insight, the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) annual average loss in Florida has exceeded $1.1 billion* since 2004. In 2022 alone, Hurricane Ian drove NFIP payouts beyond $5.1 billion on a price-inflated basis.
The Florida Flood v3.0 model is available in Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS 18 catastrophe modeling suite – an open, multi-vendor modeling platform, customizable to align with a client’s own view of risk.
Data-led features of the new model include:
- High-resolution hazard footprints;
- Annual average loss and probable maximum loss estimates, informed by customized portfolio and geographic attributes;
- First-floor building height calculations based on high-resolution terrain data, building code and flood inundation depths for all modelled locations;
- A shared stochastic and historical catalog with the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone – Wind (FCHLPM) Model v2.0 and the U.S. Flood Model v3.0.
The innovative new flood model features a stochastic catalog of 92,000 non-tropical cyclone events and 56,000 tropical cyclone events impacting Florida, and incorporates structural flood defenses derived from federal, state and local data sources. It also allows for separate modeling of pluvial, fluvial and storm surge sub-perils, with loss outputs available for all sub-peril combinations.
David Colbus, regulatory and compliance lead for Impact Forecasting at Aon, said: “Aon’s new flood model supports our clients with rate-making and underwriting as they seek to navigate volatility and build resilience in their Florida portfolios. As we continue to evolve our modelling suite and innovate on behalf of clients, we enhance clarity and confidence around flood exposures and assist the pursuit of profitable growth opportunities – which requires the accurate assessment and pricing of risk.”
Stuart Whitfield, CEO at Fathom, said: “We’re proud to see our flood hazard data supporting Aon’s Florida Flood model, providing re/insurers with intelligence to develop a robust view of flood risk. This initiative underscores the depth of our longstanding collaboration with Aon and highlights our shared commitment to deliver actionable insights that empower better decision-making for re/insurers statewide.”
For analysis of recent natural catastrophe activity, please find Q3 Global Catastrophe Recap – October 2024 report at the following link:
https://assets.aon.com/-/media/files/aon/reports/2024/aon-q3-2024-global-catastrophe-recap.pdf
For more information about Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions, please visit: https://www.aon.com/home/solutions/reinsurance.html
Notes to Editors
- All figures in USD unless otherwise stated.
- *Adjusted to 2024 dollars.
About Aon
Aon plc (NYSE: AON) exists to shape decisions for the better — to protect and enrich the lives of people around the world. Through actionable analytic insight, globally integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise, and locally relevant solutions, our colleagues provide clients in over 120 countries with the clarity and confidence to make better risk and people decisions that protect and grow their businesses.
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About Fathom
Founded in 2013, Fathom gives risk management professionals the most scientifically robust tools and intelligence to understand the climate’s impact on water risk. By publishing cutting-edge peer-reviewed academic research and applying it to real-world challenges, Fathom powers better decision-making for (re)insurance, civil engineering, corporate risk, financial markets, disaster response and government. Fathom’s dedicated team of scientists harness their passion for innovation and the environment to develop rigorous catastrophe models and comprehensive mapping and geospatial data that make a real-world difference to customers and communities worldwide. From December 2023, Fathom is a part of Swiss Re, one of the world’s leading providers of reinsurance, insurance and other forms of insurance-based risk transfer, working to make the world more resilient.
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